It has been a rainy day for most of north and central Florida today. Is it over yet? Nope. There are still at least a few more days left to deal with the rain.
Currently, radar shows spots of showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Georgia and northern Florida with a line of light rain going through Marion County.
NWS-JAX is thinking that, due to the sharpening of the upper-level trough to the north, that the front to start to move south by the end of the week. HPC's short term forecast graphics indicate this with the front near the Florida-Georgia border at around 8 p.m. Thursday. NAM guidance shows more precip over the area than the GFS (similar to yesterday's guidance run). So, it appears to be the same song and dance as today.
Tonight, mostly to partly cloudy skies with a chance of rain and a morning low near 70. It's currently 73 in Gainesville and with the models calling a low of 73, with obviously 6 hours of nighttime left and skies expected to clear, I think the temp will get lower than predicted. For Thursday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 87.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Forecast for Wednesday 07.08.2009
It was, once again, an on and off rainy day in Gainesville with the first batch of rain coming mid-morning and the second batch in the afternoon. Since then, Titletown has been under mostly cloudy skies.
It appears that this will be the same song and dance for Wednesday. Shortwave energy and instability is expected to increase according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. It doesn't appear that severe weather will be much of a risk due to lack of any substantial diurnal heating to make things more unstable. Like today, the timing of these storms should be pretty random.
The NAM guidance seems to spawn more precipitation in north Florida and the big bend at 8 pm Wednesday, but the GFS is being more conservative.
For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and a low near 73. Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 84.
It appears that this will be the same song and dance for Wednesday. Shortwave energy and instability is expected to increase according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. It doesn't appear that severe weather will be much of a risk due to lack of any substantial diurnal heating to make things more unstable. Like today, the timing of these storms should be pretty random.
The NAM guidance seems to spawn more precipitation in north Florida and the big bend at 8 pm Wednesday, but the GFS is being more conservative.
For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and a low near 73. Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 84.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Forecast for Tuesday 07.07.2009
Today, Gainesville got most of its rain in the late morning and early afternoon, but things improved as the day and evening wore on.
A stalled out trough and front over the southeast will continue to linger on Tuesday and will pump in moisture into the area. "Upper level impulses" will aid in the development of thunderstorms according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. This random impulses will make forecasting specific timing of rain and storms will make predictions difficult. Also, severe weather risk will depend on the time of day of thunderstorm initiation (daytime heating helps). NAM guidance shows more rainfall near the area come Tuesday evening.
In other words, rain chances are good, but the timing of the rainfall is the $50,000 question.
For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower possible and a low near 74. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 86.
A stalled out trough and front over the southeast will continue to linger on Tuesday and will pump in moisture into the area. "Upper level impulses" will aid in the development of thunderstorms according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. This random impulses will make forecasting specific timing of rain and storms will make predictions difficult. Also, severe weather risk will depend on the time of day of thunderstorm initiation (daytime heating helps). NAM guidance shows more rainfall near the area come Tuesday evening.
In other words, rain chances are good, but the timing of the rainfall is the $50,000 question.
For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower possible and a low near 74. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 86.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Forecast for Monday 07.06.2009
It has been a couple of days since I have done a forecast. The holiday weekend and other events have kept me away from the forecasting. Now, after a nice weekend, it's time to get back into the swing of things. I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend.
The dry period we have had for the last few days that has kept the weekend pretty nice will start to come to an end starting Monday. The ridge that has been shifting south and will continue to do so enhancing southerly flow and, therefore, increase moisture in the area. Also, a broad trough will develop to the north early this week and stall to the north. Rain chances will increase starting Monday (NWS-JAX is calling for 60 percent). The GFS is pointing out to heavy rain over north Florida Monday evening while the NAM guidance shows very little rain in the area.
At least moderate instability is forecast in the area due to the previously mentioned setup according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, they have not (at this time) listed the Gainesville area at a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary threat.
For the rest of the night, skies becoming mostly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a low near 75. For Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of a showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.
Keep any eye on the Twitter feed for any late-breaking weather.
The dry period we have had for the last few days that has kept the weekend pretty nice will start to come to an end starting Monday. The ridge that has been shifting south and will continue to do so enhancing southerly flow and, therefore, increase moisture in the area. Also, a broad trough will develop to the north early this week and stall to the north. Rain chances will increase starting Monday (NWS-JAX is calling for 60 percent). The GFS is pointing out to heavy rain over north Florida Monday evening while the NAM guidance shows very little rain in the area.
At least moderate instability is forecast in the area due to the previously mentioned setup according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, they have not (at this time) listed the Gainesville area at a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary threat.
For the rest of the night, skies becoming mostly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a low near 75. For Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of a showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.
Keep any eye on the Twitter feed for any late-breaking weather.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Forecast for Thursday 07.02.2009
It didn't rain today! I was slightly surprised not to see rain this morning. Rain seemed to be over Marion County southward to Tampa Bay where enormous amounts of rain fell.
Right now, infrared satellite imagery shows warm cloud tops over the Gainesville area. Radar shows most of the rain over south Florida with the heaviest over Broward and extreme northern Miami-Dade counties. IR SAT shows convection dying down over south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. However, things should heat up. Dr. Steve Lyons from The Weather Channel notes a shortwave trough in the western gulf that will race through the area Thursday and it should heighten chances of rain. Also, the band of moisture is expected to slide back to the north towards the area. There will be some sun expected and diurnal heating could add fuel to the fire and create scattered showers and storms. NWS-JAX says that some could be strong with some gusty microbursts possible with an isolated severe storm. NWS-JAX is calling for a 50-50 shot of rain in Gainesville on Thursday. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed tomorrow for the latest weather info.
For tonight, mostly cloudy with a slim chance of rain and a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.
Tomorrow night, I will give a sneak peak to the Independence Day holiday.
Right now, infrared satellite imagery shows warm cloud tops over the Gainesville area. Radar shows most of the rain over south Florida with the heaviest over Broward and extreme northern Miami-Dade counties. IR SAT shows convection dying down over south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. However, things should heat up. Dr. Steve Lyons from The Weather Channel notes a shortwave trough in the western gulf that will race through the area Thursday and it should heighten chances of rain. Also, the band of moisture is expected to slide back to the north towards the area. There will be some sun expected and diurnal heating could add fuel to the fire and create scattered showers and storms. NWS-JAX says that some could be strong with some gusty microbursts possible with an isolated severe storm. NWS-JAX is calling for a 50-50 shot of rain in Gainesville on Thursday. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed tomorrow for the latest weather info.
For tonight, mostly cloudy with a slim chance of rain and a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.
Tomorrow night, I will give a sneak peak to the Independence Day holiday.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Forecast for Wednesday 07.01.2009
It has been a very wet and rainy day in Gainesville. It's likely that I picked up at least an inch of rain since 12:01 this morning at my apartment while Gainesville Regional Airport received nearly 1/2-inch of rain. Things cleared out late in the afternoon, but skies remained pretty dreary for the most part.
Currently, skies remain partly cloudy over the Gainesville area. The only spot getting rain at the moment is Palm Beach County and points south with the heaviest in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The cold front that helped instigate this weather was passing south Georgia this afternoon and is expected to make its way to north Florida (near the I-10 corridor) Wednesday morning according to NWS-JAX. There is a chance of showers and storms forming in the gulf in the morning and then swing by the GNV area like it did this morning. Both NAM and GFS guidance models show rain in north Florida around 8 a.m. The rain chances seem to drop tomorrow afternoon, but only to about 50 percent.
In nutshell:
- Front forecast to drift a little further south to N FL
- Chance of rain for Alachua County in the morning (similar to today)
- A 50 percent shot of rain for Wednesday
- Most of the rain later in the day seems to be more in the central Florida area.
Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain near dawn. Expect the morning low near 73. For Wednesday, chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. I'll call for the high to be near 92.
Currently, skies remain partly cloudy over the Gainesville area. The only spot getting rain at the moment is Palm Beach County and points south with the heaviest in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The cold front that helped instigate this weather was passing south Georgia this afternoon and is expected to make its way to north Florida (near the I-10 corridor) Wednesday morning according to NWS-JAX. There is a chance of showers and storms forming in the gulf in the morning and then swing by the GNV area like it did this morning. Both NAM and GFS guidance models show rain in north Florida around 8 a.m. The rain chances seem to drop tomorrow afternoon, but only to about 50 percent.
In nutshell:
- Front forecast to drift a little further south to N FL
- Chance of rain for Alachua County in the morning (similar to today)
- A 50 percent shot of rain for Wednesday
- Most of the rain later in the day seems to be more in the central Florida area.
Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain near dawn. Expect the morning low near 73. For Wednesday, chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. I'll call for the high to be near 92.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Forecast for Monday 06.29.2009
Currently, a strong cluster of storms that brought strong winds, a possible tornado and caused power outages in Tallahassee/Leon County area has deteriorated and is moving southeast. NWS-JAX radar is showing a line of light to moderate rainfall from High Springs west to Dekle Beach in Taylor County. East Alachua County could see some light rainfall tonight. Otherwise, I expect the Gainesville area to remain pretty quiet.
Things appear to change for the start of the week. Daytime heating, an approaching cold front and "attendant mid-level energy" will raise rain chances for the area Monday. Also, the tropical wave that I mentioned last night will funnel in moisture into our area, as well (more about the wave later). The NAM and GFSx models seem to bring in more rain for tomorrow eveningFlorida than the GFS. The flow of any storms should be northwest to southeast (similar to today).
Not sure if there will be much of a severe weather threat. I'll check the soundings tomorrow moring to get some clue on instability.
For tonight, a possible light shower. Otherwise, mostly cloudy then partly cloudy skies before dawn with a morning low near 76. Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.
TROPICS
The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (noted by meteorologists as "Invest 93L") is currently over the Yucantan Penisula. It looks rather disorganized and lacking deep convection. It it expected to move to the gulf waters. The models seem to go all over the place with this system. Wind shear is pretty low west of 85 degrees West Longitude. There is a slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, but it will be watched for the next few days. Stay tuned.
Things appear to change for the start of the week. Daytime heating, an approaching cold front and "attendant mid-level energy" will raise rain chances for the area Monday. Also, the tropical wave that I mentioned last night will funnel in moisture into our area, as well (more about the wave later). The NAM and GFSx models seem to bring in more rain for tomorrow eveningFlorida than the GFS. The flow of any storms should be northwest to southeast (similar to today).
Not sure if there will be much of a severe weather threat. I'll check the soundings tomorrow moring to get some clue on instability.
For tonight, a possible light shower. Otherwise, mostly cloudy then partly cloudy skies before dawn with a morning low near 76. Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.
TROPICS
The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (noted by meteorologists as "Invest 93L") is currently over the Yucantan Penisula. It looks rather disorganized and lacking deep convection. It it expected to move to the gulf waters. The models seem to go all over the place with this system. Wind shear is pretty low west of 85 degrees West Longitude. There is a slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, but it will be watched for the next few days. Stay tuned.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Forecast for Sunday 06.28.2009
Gainesville had a few quick showers earlier today with a few heavy showers on the east side of town and Alachua County. Afterwards, it was a relatively nice day.
Tomorrow morning, a disturbance could cause showers and storms to fire up near Apalachee Bay overnight and spread inland according to NWS-JAX's latest AFD. For the rest of the day, deep west flow will suppress the east coast seabreeze and keep temps pretty warm over the area. NWS has rain chances near 30 percent for the Gainesville area.
For tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms near dawn. The morning low should be near 74. Sunday, partly cloudy with a chance of storms in the afternoon and a high near 95.
TROPICS
There is a cluster of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Yucantan Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Over the last couple of days, the system has had flare-ups in convection (mostly diurnal). The NHC has given this wave less than a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days as they expect it to move over the Yucantan and exit to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on its direction for the next few days. At least a couple of models have the system move east towards Florida, but most other models have it moving west towards south Texas or Mexico. The system has yet to become a closed low, but wind shear remains relatively low at this point.
Source: NOAA/NHC (Infrared satellite image of wave in Caribbean Sea at 10:45 pm Saturday)
However, no matter what happens, Florida could see some increased moisture from this as early as Monday. A front is expected to approach the area as early as Sunday night. This would pull any moisture from the storm and stream it towards us. NWS-JAX probabilities for precipitation (POPs) reflect the expectation starting Monday (60 percent). The NAM model guidance seems to predict more rainfall than the GFS Monday evening.
Check back tomorrow night to see the latest forecast.
Tomorrow morning, a disturbance could cause showers and storms to fire up near Apalachee Bay overnight and spread inland according to NWS-JAX's latest AFD. For the rest of the day, deep west flow will suppress the east coast seabreeze and keep temps pretty warm over the area. NWS has rain chances near 30 percent for the Gainesville area.
For tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms near dawn. The morning low should be near 74. Sunday, partly cloudy with a chance of storms in the afternoon and a high near 95.
TROPICS
There is a cluster of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Yucantan Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Over the last couple of days, the system has had flare-ups in convection (mostly diurnal). The NHC has given this wave less than a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days as they expect it to move over the Yucantan and exit to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on its direction for the next few days. At least a couple of models have the system move east towards Florida, but most other models have it moving west towards south Texas or Mexico. The system has yet to become a closed low, but wind shear remains relatively low at this point.
Source: NOAA/NHC (Infrared satellite image of wave in Caribbean Sea at 10:45 pm Saturday)
However, no matter what happens, Florida could see some increased moisture from this as early as Monday. A front is expected to approach the area as early as Sunday night. This would pull any moisture from the storm and stream it towards us. NWS-JAX probabilities for precipitation (POPs) reflect the expectation starting Monday (60 percent). The NAM model guidance seems to predict more rainfall than the GFS Monday evening.
Check back tomorrow night to see the latest forecast.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Forecast for Friday 06.26.2009
Currently, skies are mostly clear over the Gainesville area. There are showers over southwest Marion County and over Gilchrist County. These cells should rain itself out over time since there isn't any diurnal heating or many lifting to keep them sustained. Otherwise, no reason to worry about anything. There could be a possibility for fog in some areas according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion.
Friday, the ridge to our west and a trough to our east will keep the northwest flow according to the NWS. However, GFS points to a very weak and variable wind flow for Friday. The weather seems to be pretty typical of Florida with seabreeze-spawned storms possible.
For tonight, mostly clear with possible fog and a morning low near 72. For Friday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 94. NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain.
If anything seems to form nearby, I'm sure posts will be added on Twitter.
Friday, the ridge to our west and a trough to our east will keep the northwest flow according to the NWS. However, GFS points to a very weak and variable wind flow for Friday. The weather seems to be pretty typical of Florida with seabreeze-spawned storms possible.
For tonight, mostly clear with possible fog and a morning low near 72. For Friday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 94. NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain.
If anything seems to form nearby, I'm sure posts will be added on Twitter.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Forecast for Thursday 06.24.2009
The weather today was way better than it has been the last few days. The backdoor cold front that passed overnight has brought drier air aloft and sinking air to decrease our rain chances. NWS-JAX in their forecast discussion states that the upper trough that is near is is expected to drift south tonight. Also, an inversion at 700 mb will help keep any possible rain at bay. The water vapor loop continues to show dry air aloft and I don't see too much of a change until at least Friday. Models show the ridge that had a grip over the state with all that heat continuing to move west.
For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 69. That's right, the 60s. The moisture content doesn't seem to be so high (hence how I can come outside and do this forecast) and could allow for better cooling. The low cloud cover helps, too. For Thursday, partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of a shower. Expect a high near 94. Like today, I don't expect it to be too humid like it was a few days ago.
For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 69. That's right, the 60s. The moisture content doesn't seem to be so high (hence how I can come outside and do this forecast) and could allow for better cooling. The low cloud cover helps, too. For Thursday, partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of a shower. Expect a high near 94. Like today, I don't expect it to be too humid like it was a few days ago.
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